Canada Election 2019

These are the projected seat counts based on the latest polls.

Liberal 131
Conservative 121
NDP 41
Bloc Québecois 40
Green 5
Independent 0

Do you want a change of government in the 2019 Canadian election? Vote for the strongest candidate in your riding who isn't a member of the current governing party. If all non-Liberals voted this way, the seat counts would be:

Liberal 34
Conservative 183
NDP 57
Bloc Québecois 53
Green 10
Independent 1

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Projections updated Oct 20, 2019
Strategic Vote Lookup for All 338 Federal Ridings

The strongest opposition candidate is underlined. The coloured boxes are the current projected winners. Visit Elections Canada to look up your riding.

Newfoundland & Labrador
Avalon41181822141%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity6818104068%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame583183058%
Labrador5724190057%
Long Range Mountains55201411055%
St. John's East/St. John's-Est3310524052%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount Pearl448453045%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan41231223141%
Charlottetown35202421035%
Egmont3140209040%
Malpeque36231131036%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton--Canso55231012055%
Central Nova/Nova-Centre37361115137%
Cumberland--Colchester4238613042%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour39212713039%
Halifax35134013040%
Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest47241315047%
Kings--Hants5029713050%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook31213710037%
South Shore--St. Margarets38331811138%
Sydney--Victoria55181611155%
West Nova/Nova-Ouest4137715041%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
New Brunswick
Acadie--Bathurst3511449044%
Beauséjour48171718048%
Fredericton2531836036%
Fundy Royal23471613147%
Madawaska--Restigouche3825297038%
Miramichi--Grand Lake29461510046%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe37301717037%
New Brunswick Southwest/Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest25481216048%
Saint John--Rothesay30411811041%
Tobique--Mactaquac27461117046%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Québec
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou291022632132%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue27725534134%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville44818623144%
Alfred-Pellan391114630039%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation381114631038%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia346113341234%
Beauce19586512058%
Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix223210531032%
Beauport--Limoilou223115725131%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel181011556056%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis17487918048%
Beloeil--Chambly24917644044%
Berthier--Maskinongé181024443043%
Bourassa4798628247%
Brome--Missisquoi381114729038%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert471315619047%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles204211620042%
Châteauguay--Lacolle331113539039%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord271617634034%
Compton--Stanstead321216534134%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle511213717051%
Drummond221717737037%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine35619336136%
Gatineau52917517052%
Hochelaga25617843143%
Honoré-Mercier511210522051%
Hull--Aylmer51921612151%
Joliette22913650050%
Jonquière241716438138%
La Pointe-de-l'Île23714551151%
La Prairie301112641041%
Lac-Saint-Jean163316431033%
Lac-Saint-Louis6019895060%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun39717929039%
Laurentides--Labelle26914546046%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie20421945145%
Laval--Les Îles431912521043%
Lévis--Lotbinière19498519049%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne29913742142%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert25817743043%
Louis-Hébert302712724030%
Louis-Saint-Laurent19509517050%
Manicouagan2298458058%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin351213535035%
Mégantic--L'Érable253613621036%
Mirabel21916648048%
Montarville261013644144%
Montcalm21812453153%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup252914527129%
Mount Royal/Mont-Royal4740553047%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount56161495056%
Outremont3311291116133%
Papineau48516822148%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères218122040040%
Pierrefonds--Dollard57221056057%
Pontiac521514513052%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier194513518045%
Québec252115831031%
Repentigny211012551251%
Richmond--Arthabaska213114528131%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques26826434134%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles271016541041%
Rivière-du-Nord21816649049%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie19530937137%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot231616639039%
Saint-Jean281016640040%
Saint-Laurent5721778057%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel60129513060%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain361612531036%
Salaberry--Suroît241017445045%
Shefford331213636036%
Sherbrooke271022635135%
Terrebonne221013450050%
Thérèse-De Blainville261213642142%
Trois-Rivières271919529129%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges411413625041%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs4512141415045%
Vimy401312728040%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Ontario
Ajax5333104053%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing2920446044%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill454474145%
Barrie--Innisfil33421412042%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte36371215137%
Bay of Quinte/Baie de Quinte4632157146%
Beaches--East York4314357043%
Brampton Centre/Brampton-Centre4431186044%
Brampton East/Brampton-Est4822273048%
Brampton North/Brampton-Nord4430206044%
Brampton South/Brampton-Sud4833137048%
Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest5228155052%
Brantford--Brant2736297136%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound35421310042%
Burlington4240117042%
Cambridge3935169139%
Carleton4043710043%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington3338218038%
Davenport379458145%
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est5327128053%
Don Valley North/Don Valley-Nord4835107048%
Don Valley West/Don Valley-Ouest513675151%
Dufferin--Caledon3339820039%
Durham3241197141%
Eglinton--Lawrence464184146%
Elgin--Middlesex--London2844189144%
Essex1831465046%
Etobicoke Centre/Etobicoke-Centre5036104150%
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord5822154158%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore4930137049%
Flamborough--Glanbrook35391610039%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell5035105150%
Guelph38211228138%
Haldimand--Norfolk33401610240%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock27392211039%
Hamilton Centre/Hamilton-Centre27124911149%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney Creek3322377037%
Hamilton Mountain2922407140%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas/Hamilton-Ouest--Ancaster--Dundas41281912041%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington3838159038%
Humber River--Black Creek6219135162%
Huron--Bruce3641157041%
Kanata--Carleton473788047%
Kenora3125395139%
King--Vaughan444286044%
Kingston and the Islands/Kingston et les Îles48201912048%
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre4327199143%
Kitchener South--Hespeler/Kitchener-Sud--Hespeler37331810237%
Kitchener--Conestoga3940128240%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex2645209045%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston30431610143%
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes/Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes36431011043%
London North Centre/London-Centre-Nord45281710045%
London West/London-Ouest4132178141%
London--Fanshawe2623428142%
Markham--Stouffville464186046%
Markham--Thornhill5231134052%
Markham--Unionville404767047%
Milton3742137142%
Mississauga Centre/Mississauga-Centre5032126050%
Mississauga East--Cooksville/Mississauga-Est--Cooksville5134114051%
Mississauga--Erin Mills4637125046%
Mississauga--Lakeshore4439107144%
Mississauga--Malton5525155055%
Mississauga--Streetsville4438117044%
Nepean4834107148%
Newmarket--Aurora4240107142%
Niagara Centre/Niagara-Centre3126367136%
Niagara Falls3138247038%
Niagara West/Niagara-Ouest3045149345%
Nickel Belt3614427042%
Nipissing--Timiskaming4727197047%
Northumberland--Peterborough South/Northumberland--Peterborough-Sud3836179038%
Oakville464077046%
Oakville North--Burlington/Oakville-Nord--Burlington444195144%
Orléans5629105056%
Oshawa2433367036%
Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre3612438143%
Ottawa South/Ottawa-Sud5522149155%
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean5128128151%
Ottawa--Vanier5117229151%
Oxford28411910241%
Parkdale--High Park3511448144%
Parry Sound--Muskoka32371119037%
Perth--Wellington3439188239%
Peterborough--Kawartha3932226039%
Pickering--Uxbridge4636117046%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke30431061243%
Richmond Hill4441105044%
St. Catharines3934197039%
Sarnia--Lambton2334358035%
Sault Ste. Marie4028266040%
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre4630146346%
Scarborough North/Scarborough-Nord4425264044%
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest4619277046%
Scarborough--Agincourt4936104149%
Scarborough--Guildwood5625144056%
Scarborough--Rouge Park5626136056%
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord35391213139%
Simcoe--Grey34421113142%
Spadina--Fort York4814326048%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry3648107048%
Sudbury4119329041%
Thornhill325764157%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River36183214036%
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Supérieur-Nord33132232133%
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James2918486048%
Toronto Centre/Toronto-Centre5111317051%
Toronto--Danforth3484312243%
Toronto--St. Paul's4925179049%
University--Rosedale4315338043%
Vaughan--Woodbridge464264246%
Waterloo4529188045%
Wellington--Halton Hills32461011046%
Whitby4139126041%
Willowdale493587149%
Windsor West/Windsor-Ouest2117556055%
Windsor--Tecumseh2224485048%
York Centre/York-Centre444295044%
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston4017356240%
York--Simcoe3446119046%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Manitoba
Brandon--Souris2258712058%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley355186051%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski2613564156%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa1753147853%
Elmwood--Transcona1739405040%
Kildonan--St. Paul2750184150%
Portage--Lisgar156877368%
Provencher216568065%
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital/Saint-Boniface--Saint-Vital4139155041%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman1860137260%
Winnipeg Centre/Winnipeg-Centre3716389138%
Winnipeg North/Winnipeg-Nord5222206052%
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud414775047%
Winnipeg South Centre/Winnipeg-Centre-Sud4238137042%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Saskatchewan
Battlefords--Lloydminster965193365%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek/Sentier Carlton--Eagle Creek868204068%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands873145073%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière Churchill2035414041%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan1059264059%
Prince Albert1154324054%
Regina--Lewvan1639413141%
Regina--Qu'Appelle1349344049%
Regina--Wascana3840175040%
Saskatoon West/Saskatoon-Ouest1437453145%
Saskatoon--Grasswood1547353047%
Saskatoon--University1446363046%
Souris--Moose Mountain773155073%
Yorkton--Melville1063225063%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Alberta
Banff--Airdrie177085070%
Battle River--Crowfoot58384083%
Bow River88262182%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre335683056%
Calgary Confederation3056104056%
Calgary Forest Lawn2457134257%
Calgary Heritage177193071%
Calgary Midnapore147393073%
Calgary Nose Hill1767113167%
Calgary Rocky Ridge216973069%
Calgary Shepard167383073%
Calgary Signal Hill206963169%
Calgary Skyview3350113350%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre2440323140%
Edmonton Griesbach1343413143%
Edmonton Manning1750293150%
Edmonton Mill Woods3145156345%
Edmonton Riverbend1956213156%
Edmonton Strathcona1233523152%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest2357172157%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin1371123171%
Foothills88084180%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake1869102169%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie977104177%
Lakeland876123176%
Lethbridge1160243160%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner187262272%
Peace River--Westlock872173172%
Red Deer--Lacombe974133074%
Red Deer--Mountain View878103178%
St. Albert--Edmonton14501422150%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan1370123270%
Sturgeon River--Parkland974124174%
Yellowhead976113276%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
British Columbia
Abbotsford2552149052%
Burnaby North--Seymour/Burnaby-Nord--Seymour29313010131%
Burnaby South/Burnaby-Sud2730365136%
Cariboo--Prince George2541276141%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola2944207044%
Chilliwack--Hope2646188146%
Cloverdale--Langley City3739168039%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam2835287235%
Courtenay--Alberni16293620036%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford17223327133%
Delta4038166040%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke19173232032%
Fleetwood--Port Kells3934234039%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo2439316039%
Kelowna--Lake Country3846150046%
Kootenay--Columbia15383611038%
Langley--Aldergrove2950138150%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon2938219238%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith16233031031%
New Westminster--Burnaby2322448344%
North Island--Powell River19283914039%
North Okanagan--Shuswap2342269042%
North Vancouver4630815046%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge2735308135%
Port Moody--Coquitlam2432376037%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies1956159156%
Richmond Centre/Richmond-Centre3350125050%
Saanich--Gulf Islands915769069%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley1427516251%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay/Okanagan-Sud--Kootenay-Ouest2232387138%
South Surrey--White Rock/Surrey-Sud--White Rock3349116149%
Steveston--Richmond East/Steveston--Richmond-Est3643137143%
Surrey Centre/Surrey-Centre3723327137%
Surrey--Newton4819294048%
Vancouver Centre/Vancouver-Centre47202211147%
Vancouver East/Vancouver-Est22125016150%
Vancouver Granville3630286036%
Vancouver Kingsway2223476147%
Vancouver Quadra4930128049%
Vancouver South/Vancouver-Sud4039155040%
Victoria7103447147%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country44291016044%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Yukon
Yukon31292021031%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Northwest Territories
Northwest Territories/Territoires du Nord-Ouest27213022030%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nunavut
Nunavut28312813031%

 

More Info

More information about strategic voting.

All projections and strategic voting recommendations displayed on this page are calculated by an impartial algorithm. The code is on GitHub. You can run it on your own computer if you like. The model forecasts the popular vote in all 338 federal ridings by starting with the 2015 election results and applying an adjustment calculated from the latest regional polling data.

Brought to you by the creator of AnyoneButHarper.net (2015) and AnyoneButScheer.ca (2019). The next step is Direct Democracy, and you can be part of it! Updates will be posted on this site.

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Projections updated Oct 20, 2019