Canada Election 2021

These are the projected seat counts based on the latest polls.

Liberal 157
Conservative 118
NDP 33
Bloc Québecois 28
Green 2
Independent 0

Do you want a change of government in the 2021 Canadian election? Vote for the strongest candidate in your riding who isn't a member of the current governing party. If all non-Liberals voted this way, the seat counts would be:

Liberal 55
Conservative 182
NDP 53
Bloc Québecois 46
Green 2
Independent 0

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Projections updated Sep 19, 2021
Strategic Vote Lookup for All 338 Federal Ridings

The strongest opposition candidate is underlined. The coloured boxes are the current projected winners. Visit Elections Canada to look up your riding.

Newfoundland & Labrador
Avalon4731202047%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity4838131048%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame4935151049%
Labrador4130281041%
Long Range Mountains4728231147%
St. John's East/St. John's-Est4117411041%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount Pearl5018311050%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan543195154%
Charlottetown5223159152%
Egmont463987046%
Malpeque4831913048%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton--Canso4340142143%
Central Nova/Nova-Centre5031163050%
Cumberland--Colchester4038155140%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour4616323246%
Halifax4512375145%
Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest5220244052%
Kings--Hants4727224047%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook4223294242%
South Shore--St. Margarets4530204145%
Sydney--Victoria3732282137%
West Nova/Nova-Ouest4241133042%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
New Brunswick
Acadie--Bathurst5722183057%
Beauséjour56211010256%
Fredericton3640914040%
Fundy Royal2952135152%
Madawaska--Restigouche563185056%
Miramichi--Grand Lake4341114143%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe4926166349%
New Brunswick Southwest/Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest2853115353%
Saint John--Rothesay4238164042%
Tobique--Mactaquac2855105355%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Québec
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou291815234134%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue341610138138%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville53813421153%
Alfred-Pellan49129227049%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation39139335239%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia3595150150%
Beauce16565218356%
Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix21336235335%
Beauport--Limoilou262812328228%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel18186255155%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis17546221054%
Beloeil--Chambly24717349149%
Berthier--Maskinongé141139135039%
Bourassa5989221159%
Brome--Missisquoi39149433139%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert541211419154%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles21409225240%
Châteauguay--Lacolle39129336139%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord17407233140%
Compton--Stanstead381611430138%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle541213416154%
Drummond181818243143%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine4495239144%
Gatineau531112320153%
Hochelaga35525332135%
Honoré-Mercier60109219060%
Hull--Aylmer551016514055%
Joliette24105357157%
Jonquière162227133133%
La Pointe-de-l'Île31813245045%
La Prairie38109340040%
Lac-Saint-Jean25256142142%
Lac-Saint-Louis59161455159%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun45819523145%
Laurentides--Labelle3597346146%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie42328422142%
Laval--Les Îles481810319248%
Lévis--Lotbinière17478223447%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne40812435140%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert4168638041%
Louis-Hébert41199327241%
Louis-Saint-Laurent20477221247%
Manicouagan20214252152%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin451110331145%
Mégantic--L'Érable15535224253%
Mirabel26109450150%
Montarville37810341141%
Montcalm21108357157%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup16448130144%
Mount Royal/Mont-Royal5627944056%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount58131874058%
Outremont48723813048%
Papineau52522515152%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères3098349149%
Pierrefonds--Dollard57191248057%
Pontiac452414313145%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier20466222346%
Québec341713431134%
Repentigny2988252152%
Richmond--Arthabaska15485426148%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques22932135135%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles37910439239%
Rivière-du-Nord23138451151%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie24247422047%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot211621239139%
Saint-Jean32129443143%
Saint-Laurent59191147059%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel66148210066%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain40186232240%
Salaberry--Suroît31119246146%
Shefford38147337138%
Sherbrooke291132324032%
Terrebonne3089349149%
Thérèse-De Blainville37109340040%
Trois-Rivières283110129031%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges481212323148%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs551018513055%
Vimy481210326148%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Ontario
Ajax5727142057%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing2326473247%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill4641112146%
Barrie--Innisfil2946194246%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte3142187242%
Bay of Quinte/Baie de Quinte3838193238%
Beaches--East York5615253256%
Brampton Centre/Brampton-Centre4628232246%
Brampton East/Brampton-Est4524301045%
Brampton North/Brampton-Nord5028201150%
Brampton South/Brampton-Sud4830192148%
Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest5225221052%
Brantford--Brant3043243043%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound3150145150%
Burlington4835123148%
Cambridge4032244040%
Carleton3748112148%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington3048182248%
Davenport419462146%
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est5925132159%
Don Valley North/Don Valley-Nord4937112149%
Don Valley West/Don Valley-Ouest553392155%
Dufferin--Caledon3446146146%
Durham3143213243%
Eglinton--Lawrence5235102152%
Elgin--Middlesex--London2352213252%
Essex1841382241%
Etobicoke Centre/Etobicoke-Centre513692151%
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord6023131360%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore5231143052%
Flamborough--Glanbrook3540195140%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell4738122247%
Guelph45231715045%
Haldimand--Norfolk2551194251%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock2551174251%
Hamilton Centre/Hamilton-Centre2815534053%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney Creek3726333237%
Hamilton Mountain2926423142%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas/Hamilton-Ouest--Ancaster--Dundas4628214146%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington3643153343%
Humber River--Black Creek5917221159%
Huron--Bruce3250142250%
Kanata--Carleton4137174141%
Kenora2935333135%
King--Vaughan474382147%
Kingston and the Islands/Kingston et les Îles4520274345%
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre20332620133%
Kitchener South--Hespeler/Kitchener-Sud--Hespeler4137166041%
Kitchener--Conestoga4042125242%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex2551193351%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston2551176251%
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes/Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands et Rideau Lakes2651174251%
London North Centre/London-Centre-Nord4225274342%
London West/London-Ouest4229253142%
London--Fanshawe2525472147%
Markham--Stouffville484092148%
Markham--Thornhill533691153%
Markham--Unionville375182251%
Milton513882151%
Mississauga Centre/Mississauga-Centre5531112255%
Mississauga East--Cooksville/Mississauga-Est--Cooksville5235102052%
Mississauga--Erin Mills5234112152%
Mississauga--Lakeshore4839102048%
Mississauga--Malton5627151156%
Mississauga--Streetsville5035122150%
Nepean4535163145%
Newmarket--Aurora4340133243%
Niagara Centre/Niagara-Centre3432313134%
Niagara Falls3440233140%
Niagara West/Niagara-Ouest3248153248%
Nickel Belt3721373237%
Nipissing--Timiskaming3928243639%
Northumberland--Peterborough South/Northumberland--Peterborough-Sud3642174242%
Oakville464193146%
Oakville North--Burlington/Oakville-Nord--Burlington4740102147%
Orléans5329142153%
Oshawa2439322239%
Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre4813354048%
Ottawa South/Ottawa-Sud5126193151%
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean4529223045%
Ottawa--Vanier5119264051%
Oxford1951244251%
Parkdale--High Park4616308046%
Parry Sound--Muskoka3146148146%
Perth--Wellington2749185149%
Peterborough--Kawartha3439207039%
Pickering--Uxbridge5030143250%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke2057183357%
Richmond Hill4245102145%
St. Catharines3932243139%
Sarnia--Lambton2050252350%
Sault Ste. Marie3733262237%
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre5524141655%
Scarborough North/Scarborough-Nord5231151152%
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest5622182156%
Scarborough--Agincourt4938101149%
Scarborough--Guildwood6124141061%
Scarborough--Rouge Park6221142162%
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord3146175146%
Simcoe--Grey3247146047%
Spadina--Fort York5621194056%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry2455162255%
Sudbury4021343140%
Thornhill345681056%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River3329332233%
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Supérieur-Nord4227254242%
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James2426452345%
Toronto Centre/Toronto-Centre51101919151%
Toronto--Danforth4611393046%
Toronto--St. Paul's5423193254%
University--Rosedale5217264052%
Vaughan--Woodbridge513891051%
Waterloo4926185249%
Wellington--Halton Hills2951117251%
Whitby4337173143%
Willowdale4838112048%
Windsor West/Windsor-Ouest3419451245%
Windsor--Tecumseh3326373137%
York Centre/York-Centre474092247%
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston5720202257%
York--Simcoe2749174349%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Manitoba
Brandon--Souris1657207057%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley4132184541%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski2514574157%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa1757205257%
Elmwood--Transcona1428543154%
Kildonan--St. Paul3635245136%
Portage--Lisgar1465135365%
Provencher1758185358%
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital/Saint-Boniface--Saint-Vital4925215149%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman1554245254%
Winnipeg Centre/Winnipeg-Centre3613474147%
Winnipeg North/Winnipeg-Nord5115302151%
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud4831183048%
Winnipeg South Centre/Winnipeg-Centre-Sud5023215150%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Saskatchewan
Battlefords--Lloydminster971162271%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek/Sentier Carlton--Eagle Creek672182272%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands675142475%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière Churchill3033352135%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan762242462%
Prince Albert1359242259%
Regina--Lewvan1643373043%
Regina--Qu'Appelle1555273055%
Regina--Wascana4041172041%
Saskatoon West/Saskatoon-Ouest1637433143%
Saskatoon--Grasswood2043332243%
Saskatoon--University1542382242%
Souris--Moose Mountain680122180%
Yorkton--Melville869173369%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Alberta
Banff--Airdrie1460193460%
Battle River--Crowfoot678102378%
Bow River877111377%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre3346173046%
Calgary Confederation2845207045%
Calgary Forest Lawn2749193349%
Calgary Heritage1961173061%
Calgary Midnapore1463182363%
Calgary Nose Hill2159182059%
Calgary Rocky Ridge2457162257%
Calgary Shepard1564162364%
Calgary Signal Hill2060163160%
Calgary Skyview3840202040%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre4029282040%
Edmonton Griesbach2038402040%
Edmonton Manning2543292143%
Edmonton Mill Woods4139181041%
Edmonton Riverbend2744252144%
Edmonton Strathcona1123641164%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest2447252247%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin1661212061%
Foothills874113374%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake1371111471%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie775142375%
Lakeland678132078%
Lethbridge1753262253%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner969172369%
Peace River--Westlock871142471%
Red Deer--Lacombe770172470%
Red Deer--Mountain View871142571%
St. Albert--Edmonton2347262247%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan1362222062%
Sturgeon River--Parkland967192367%
Yellowhead776142076%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
British Columbia
Abbotsford2152225152%
Burnaby North--Seymour/Burnaby-Nord--Seymour3326356035%
Burnaby South/Burnaby-Sud2229463146%
Cariboo--Prince George2054206154%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola2447225247%
Chilliwack--Hope2049226449%
Cloverdale--Langley City3437244237%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam3333294033%
Courtenay--Alberni1131508050%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford15254612246%
Delta4133214141%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke18204616046%
Fleetwood--Port Kells3533273235%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo2746187146%
Kelowna--Lake Country3246164246%
Kootenay--Columbia943435143%
Langley--Aldergrove2547225247%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon2642236242%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith12283030030%
New Westminster--Burnaby2120535253%
North Island--Powell River1232488048%
North Okanagan--Shuswap2249206349%
North Vancouver4227228142%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge2835305135%
Port Moody--Coquitlam2730384238%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies1170124370%
Richmond Centre/Richmond-Centre2849194249%
Saanich--Gulf Islands19242035235%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley1132514251%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay/Okanagan-Sud--Kootenay-Ouest1634455145%
South Surrey--White Rock/Surrey-Sud--White Rock3742155242%
Steveston--Richmond East/Steveston--Richmond-Est3441194141%
Surrey Centre/Surrey-Centre3625354136%
Surrey--Newton4120362241%
Vancouver Centre/Vancouver-Centre4119318041%
Vancouver East/Vancouver-Est1611638163%
Vancouver Granville3932227139%
Vancouver Kingsway2018583158%
Vancouver Quadra4328208043%
Vancouver South/Vancouver-Sud3933243139%
Victoria22134518145%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country32381811138%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Yukon
Yukon31282811131%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Northwest Territories
Northwest Territories/Territoires du Nord-Ouest37222811237%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nunavut
Nunavut2721502050%

 

More Info

More information about strategic voting.

All projections and strategic voting recommendations displayed on this page are calculated by an impartial algorithm. The code is on GitHub. You can run it on your own computer if you like. The model takes into account the 2019 election results, by-elections, regional polling data, and the latest district-level polling. In past elections, the model got 77% to 85% of the districts right.

Brought to you by the creator of AnyoneButHarper.net (2015), AnyoneButScheer.ca (2019), and AnyoneButOToole.ca (2021). The next step is Direct Democracy, and you can be part of it! Updates will be posted on this site.

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Projections updated Sep 19, 2021